The game is finally here. Who’s ready to see what two of college football’s best defenses bring to a three-plus-hour, all-stakes brawl?
Michigan remains #1 in this week’s updated stop rate rankings. And Ohio State is still No. 2. In a week that has seen key offensive players on both sides of this rivalry struggle with injuries, we’re in for the best defensive duel of the 2022 season on Saturday afternoon.
What is stop rate? It’s a basic measure of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that result in punts, turnovers, or turnovers on downs. This simple metric can more accurately reflect a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster game than yards per game or points per game. We’ve tracked this for each of the last five seasons (here are the final standings for 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2017) along with each defense’s average points per drive.
The Wolverines have led the nation in stopping rate under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter for more than a month, being stopped on 83.3 percent of their drives in 11 games. Their college football playoff roster had a top-10 defense a year ago (75.3 percent, good for eighth place) and lost some big talent to the NFL, but only got more efficient when it came to stops to get and cut their points per drive average from 1.43 to 0.91.
Jim Knowles had the No. 4 defense in Oklahoma State for stop rate last season (79.1 percent). His Ohio State defense is stopped at exactly the same rate, giving up fewer points per drive (1.19). Sure, Knowles inherited a ton of blue-chip talent with this crew. But his ability to get them to play with more cohesion, consistency and confidence was impressive. They must prove themselves against the brutality of Michigan’s O-line-and-run game.
Which defense comes out on top in this showdown? Both are among the FBS leaders when it comes to forcing three-and-offs. How many are we actually going to see on Saturday? Michigan’s offense was actually a little more effective at ending his drives, scoring on 58 percent of his possession (No. 3 on the FBS). Ohio State’s offense was better at reaching the end zone (TDs on 47 percent of drives, also No. 3) and scoring more points per drive.
Last season at Ann Arbor, the Buckeyes’ defense collapsed in the second half, giving up touchdowns on all four drives. This year? They only allowed 73 points over 71 drives in the second half. Michigan was even better: 62 drives in the second half, 62 points. Buckle up for four punchy quarters of physical and tactical excellence from these units.
How does the rest of the defenses across the country fare on stop rate? Here’s the full FBS stop rate ranking through week 12.
Note: All data courtesy of TruMedia and Focus on professional football.
|
rank |
defense |
G |
D |
stop rate |
Points/D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
11 |
126 |
83.3% |
0.91 |
|
|
2 |
11 |
143 |
79% |
1.19 |
|
|
3 |
9 |
127 |
78.7% |
1.16 |
|
|
4 |
10 |
122 |
77% |
1.14 |
|
|
5 |
10 |
125 |
76.8% |
1.37 |
|
|
6 |
10 |
112 |
76.8% |
1.04 |
|
|
7 |
11 |
145 |
76.6% |
1.28 |
|
|
8th |
10 |
124 |
75.8% |
1.16 |
|
|
9 |
10 |
123 |
75.6% |
1.32 |
|
|
10 |
10 |
106 |
75.5% |
1.26 |
|
|
11 |
10 |
129 |
75.2% |
1.45 |
|
|
12 |
10 |
135 |
74.8% |
1.40 |
|
|
13 |
11 |
142 |
74.6% |
1.52 |
|
|
14 |
10 |
113 |
74.3% |
1.45 |
|
|
fifteen |
9 |
107 |
73.8% |
1.59 |
|
|
16 |
10 |
129 |
73.6% |
1.57 |
|
|
16 |
9 |
129 |
73.6% |
1.50 |
|
|
18 |
10 |
98 |
73.5% |
1.42 |
|
|
19 |
11 |
135 |
73.3% |
1.60 |
|
|
20 |
10 |
133 |
72.9% |
1.56 |
|
|
21 |
10 |
124 |
72.6% |
1.79 |
|
|
22 |
10 |
127 |
72.4% |
1.70 |
|
|
23 |
10 |
119 |
71.4% |
1.63 |
|
|
24 |
10 |
118 |
71.2% |
1.66 |
|
|
25 |
10 |
120 |
70.8% |
1.60 |
|
|
26 |
10 |
112 |
70.5% |
1.62 |
|
|
27 |
11 |
135 |
70.4% |
1.68 |
|
|
28 |
10 |
120 |
70% |
1.73 |
|
|
29 |
11 |
143 |
69.9% |
1.68 |
|
|
30 |
10 |
119 |
69.7% |
1.81 |
|
|
31 |
10 |
122 |
69.7% |
1.64 |
|
|
31 |
10 |
122 |
69.7% |
1.72 |
|
|
33 |
10 |
115 |
69.6% |
1.66 |
|
|
34 |
10 |
133 |
69.2% |
1.71 |
|
|
35 |
10 |
113 |
69% |
1.88 |
|
|
36 |
9 |
118 |
68.6% |
1.89 |
|
|
37 |
10 |
117 |
68.4% |
1.77 |
|
|
38 |
10 |
124 |
67.7% |
1.93 |
|
|
39 |
10 |
133 |
67.7% |
1.89 |
|
|
40 |
10 |
123 |
67.5% |
1.89 |
|
|
41 |
10 |
122 |
67.2% |
1.93 |
|
|
42 |
11 |
136 |
66.9% |
1.83 |
|
|
43 |
10 |
132 |
66.7% |
2.08 |
|
|
43 |
10 |
114 |
66.7% |
1.78 |
|
|
43 |
10 |
120 |
66.7% |
1.94 |
|
|
43 |
10 |
129 |
66.7% |
1.98 |
|
|
43 |
10 |
117 |
66.7% |
2.11 |
|
|
43 |
9 |
114 |
66.7% |
1.76 |
|
|
49 |
11 |
149 |
66.4% |
2.04 |
|
|
50 |
10 |
128 |
66.4% |
2.11 |
|
|
51 |
11 |
130 |
66.2% |
2.02 |
|
|
52 |
10 |
124 |
66.1% |
1.99 |
|
|
53 |
10 |
132 |
65.9% |
1.94 |
|
|
54 |
10 |
123 |
65.9% |
2.10 |
|
|
54 |
10 |
123 |
65.9% |
2.04 |
|
|
56 |
10 |
134 |
65.7% |
2.09 |
|
|
57 |
10 |
136 |
65.4% |
2.14 |
|
|
58 |
10 |
127 |
65.4% |
2.13 |
|
|
59 |
10 |
121 |
65.3% |
2.07 |
|
|
60 |
10 |
132 |
65.2% |
1.83 |
|
|
61 |
10 |
109 |
65.1% |
1.88 |
|
|
62 |
10 |
152 |
65.1% |
2.11 |
|
|
63 |
10 |
123 |
65% |
2.05 |
|
|
64 |
11 |
142 |
64.8% |
2.18 |
|
|
65 |
10 |
127 |
64.6% |
2.06 |
|
|
66 |
10 |
129 |
64.3% |
2.19 |
|
|
67 |
11 |
143 |
64.3% |
1.98 |
|
|
68 |
10 |
117 |
64.1% |
2.11 |
|
|
69 |
11 |
150 |
64% |
2.14 |
|
|
70 |
10 |
130 |
63.8% |
2.12 |
|
|
71 |
10 |
124 |
63.7% |
2.25 |
|
|
72 |
11 |
122 |
63.1% |
2.37 |
|
|
73 |
9 |
103 |
63.1% |
2.33 |
|
|
74 |
10 |
119 |
63% |
2.21 |
|
|
74 |
10 |
119 |
63% |
2.25 |
|
|
76 |
10 |
116 |
62.9% |
2.18 |
|
|
76 |
10 |
116 |
62.9% |
2.19 |
|
|
78 |
11 |
132 |
62.9% |
2.17 |
|
|
78 |
11 |
132 |
62.9% |
2.20 |
|
|
80 |
11 |
137 |
62.8% |
2.06 |
|
|
81 |
10 |
144 |
62.5% |
2.32 |
|
|
81 |
11 |
128 |
62.5% |
2.23 |
|
|
81 |
10 |
128 |
62.5% |
2.20 |
|
|
84 |
10 |
117 |
62.4% |
2.29 |
|
|
85 |
10 |
109 |
62.4% |
2.39 |
|
|
86 |
11 |
140 |
62.1% |
2.33 |
|
|
87 |
10 |
124 |
62.1% |
2.26 |
|
|
87 |
10 |
124 |
62.1% |
2.32 |
|
|
89 |
10 |
129 |
62% |
2.08 |
|
|
90 |
10 |
121 |
62% |
2.21 |
|
|
91 |
10 |
115 |
61.7% |
2.11 |
|
|
92 |
10 |
132 |
61.4% |
2.36 |
|
|
93 |
10 |
119 |
61.3% |
2.24 |
|
|
94 |
10 |
121 |
61.2% |
2.16 |
|
|
95 |
10 |
128 |
60.9% |
2.27 |
|
|
96 |
10 |
122 |
60.7% |
2.54 |
|
|
97 |
10 |
127 |
60.6% |
2.23 |
|
|
98 |
10 |
114 |
60.5% |
2.20 |
|
|
99 |
10 |
134 |
60.4% |
2.30 |
|
|
100 |
9 |
103 |
60.2% |
2.28 |
|
|
101 |
10 |
124 |
59.7% |
2.56 |
|
|
101 |
10 |
124 |
59.7% |
2.34 |
|
|
103 |
10 |
123 |
59.3% |
2.36 |
|
|
104 |
10 |
118 |
59.3% |
2.53 |
|
|
105 |
10 |
109 |
58.7% |
2.53 |
|
|
106 |
8th |
87 |
58.6% |
2.52 |
|
|
107 |
10 |
124 |
58.1% |
2.48 |
|
|
108 |
10 |
116 |
57.8% |
2.44 |
|
|
109 |
10 |
129 |
57.4% |
2.43 |
|
|
110 |
10 |
109 |
56.9% |
2.41 |
|
|
111 |
10 |
113 |
56.6% |
2.58 |
|
|
112 |
10 |
127 |
55.1% |
2.62 |
|
|
113 |
10 |
129 |
55% |
2.80 |
|
|
114 |
9 |
100 |
55% |
2.54 |
|
|
115 |
11 |
131 |
55% |
2.68 |
|
|
115 |
10 |
131 |
55% |
2.80 |
|
|
117 |
10 |
119 |
54.6% |
2.74 |
|
|
118 |
9 |
110 |
54.5% |
2.87 |
|
|
118 |
10 |
110 |
54.5% |
2.72 |
|
|
120 |
10 |
121 |
53.7% |
2.98 |
|
|
121 |
10 |
116 |
53.4% |
2.81 |
|
|
122 |
10 |
116 |
52.6% |
2.91 |
|
|
123 |
10 |
119 |
52.1% |
2.84 |
|
|
124 |
10 |
118 |
51.7% |
2.94 |
|
|
125 |
11 |
129 |
51.2% |
2.86 |
|
|
126 |
10 |
114 |
50.9% |
2.89 |
|
|
127 |
10 |
126 |
50% |
3.02 |
|
|
128 |
11 |
127 |
49.6% |
3.13 |
|
|
129 |
10 |
115 |
49.6% |
3.03 |
|
|
130 |
11 |
133 |
47.4% |
3.41 |
|
|
131 |
10 |
120 |
44.2% |
3.43 |
(Photo: Rick Osentoski / USA Today)
